As the dust settles on the 2024 election, which saw the Donald Trump/JD Vance ticket achieve a sweeping victory, the political landscape is already buzzing with speculation and anticipation for the 2028 U.S. presidential election. Within just a day of the electoral results, sportsbooks have posted opening odds, giving us a preliminary glimpse into who might be in the running for the highest office in the land four years from now.
Vice President-Elect JD Vance Takes the Lead
With Trump facing term limits, all eyes are on Vice President-elect JD Vance, who has emerged as the early favorite in the betting markets. Vance, currently serving as a junior senator from Ohio, has opened with odds of +300, translating to a 25% implied probability of winning the presidency in 2028. This positions him not only as the frontrunner for the Republican Party but also as a significant player in the overall race for the White House.
His experience and visibility amplified by the 2024 campaign are likely to bolster his appeal as he steps firmly into the spotlight. Vance’s early favorability in the polls signifies the trust and confidence many party insiders and the betting public have in his capabilities to carry forward the Trump legacy.
The Landscape of Early Odds
The preliminary odds for the 2028 presidential election reveal a fascinating mix of established politicians and celebrity figures. Here’s how the landscape looks:
| Candidate (Party) | Odds |
|---|---|
| JD Vance (GOP) | +300 |
| Michelle Obama (DEM) | +500 |
| Gavin Newsom (DEM) | +550 |
| Ron DeSantis (GOP) | +800 |
| Tulsi Gabbard (GOP) | +1000 |
| Hillary Clinton (DEM) | +1400 |
| Tucker Carlson (GOP) | +1400 |
| Nikki Haley (GOP) | +2500 |
| Oprah Winfrey (DEM) | +2500 |
| Kamala Harris (DEM) | +2500 |
| Josh Shapiro (GOP) | +3300 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (IND) | +3300 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (GOP) | +3300 |
| Donald Trump Jr. (GOP) | +4000 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DEM) | +5000 |
| Dwayne Johnson (TBD) | +6600 |
| Liz Cheney (GOP) | +6600 |
| Glenn Youngkin (GOP) | +6600 |
| Elizabeth Warren (DEM) | +6600 |
| Tim Walz (DEM) | +5000 |
These odds, current as of November 6, 2024, provide a snapshot of who sportsbooks expect to be competitive in the upcoming election.
Democratic Candidates: A Leadership Vacuum
The Democratic Party finds itself in a challenging position following the defeat of Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. Michelle Obama, the former First Lady, has emerged with the best odds among Democrats at +500, despite never having held public office. This unique situation highlights the vacuum of leadership and the enthusiasm surrounding someone of her stature and influence.
Following Obama, California Governor Gavin Newsom stands with odds of +550, showcasing his rising prominence within the party. However, there’s a noticeable gap to the next-tier candidates like Hillary Clinton, who is at +1400, and talk show moguls like Oprah Winfrey and Kamala Harris, both sitting at +2500.
The GOP Landscape: A Competitive Field
For Republicans, the odds suggest a more familiar dynamic as the party gears up for 2028. In the race to challenge Vance for the GOP nomination, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is seen as the primary contender with odds of +800. After a rocky campaign launch in 2024, DeSantis’s resilience and ability to regain favor among Republican voters will be vital to his quest for the nomination.
Other potential candidates include Tulsi Gabbard and Tucker Carlson, both of whom bring unique perspectives and appeal to specific voter demographics, while seasoned figures like Nikki Haley are also in the mix, albeit with longer odds at +2500.
Conclusion
While the 2028 U.S. presidential election is still years away, the early odds cast a fascinating light on potential candidates and party dynamics. JD Vance’s position as the frontrunner reflects the influence of the incumbent administration, while the Democratic Party grapples with identity and leadership challenges. As the political landscape evolves, one thing remains clear: the next election cycle promises to be as contentious and captivating as ever. Whether the odds reflect actual outcomes or merely the whims of sportsbooks will only become apparent with time, but the journey towards the White House has undoubtedly begun.
