CFL Picks: Upset Alerts and Breakout Candidate for Week 20
As we gear up for the penultimate week of the Canadian Football League (CFL) regular season, things are heating up. The playoff picture is crystal clear, with all six spots firmly claimed. However, that doesn’t mean the last couple of weeks will be devoid of intrigue. With playoff teams potentially resting key players and lower-ranked teams battling for pride, there are betting opportunities that savvy fans can exploit.
In this article, we’ll delve into two matchups that could shape up as upsets, and spotlight one player whose conditions may be primed for a breakout performance. Let’s jump right in!
Ottawa Redblacks at Toronto Argonauts
Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Both the Ottawa Redblacks and the Toronto Argonauts have secured their postseason berths. Given that context, the Argonauts are likely to be narrow favorites in this match-up. However, recent performances from both squads raise questions about their current form.
In Week 19, Toronto narrowly edged out Winnipeg with a score of 14-11, while Ottawa mustered just 12 points in their own game against the Montreal Alouettes. Nevertheless, there’s hope for the Redblacks—Dru Brown, who threw for 349 yards and a touchdown in a previous matchup against the Argonauts, returned to action late in the contest against Montreal after recovering from an ankle injury. Should he find his rhythm, Ottawa could pull off a surprising upset.
Starting quarterback Nick Crum is expected to be in the lineup for Ottawa, providing crucial reps before the playoffs. One of Ottawa’s star performers, Justin Hardy, missed Week 19 but stands a chance of returning to the field this week. In their previous face-off, Hardy recorded six receptions in a decisive 41-27 victory over Toronto in Week 14 at home.
More encouraging news for the Redblacks comes from their balanced offensive attack led by Khalan Laborn, an emerging talent in the backfield. Though the Argonauts have been stout defensively, limiting opponents on the ground, Laborn managed a notable 33-yard touchdown run in their earlier match-up. Additionally, Ottawa’s defense has demonstrated its mettle, allowing the second-fewest yards per play (6.26), which could help keep them in contention throughout the game.
On the flip side, Toronto’s Chad Kelly had a spectacular but inconsistent outing in their last encounter with Ottawa. While he amassed a staggering 463 passing yards, he also threw four interceptions and suffered six sacks. This creates a plausible situation where the Redblacks could manage an upset if they play to their strengths—especially with a potential star-studded receiving corps consisting of Hardy, Kalil Pimpleton, and Dominique Rhymes.
Montreal Alouettes at BC Lions
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
In this encounter, the Montreal Alouettes secured a flat Thanksgiving victory against Ottawa, but it was far from impressive. They managed to put points on the board with Davis Alexander at the helm, as starting quarterback Cody Fajardo missed practice for personal reasons. The defending Grey Cup champions find themselves comfortably positioned with a stellar record of 12-3-1.
However, the upstart BC Lions will be looking to capitalize on the Alouettes’ lackluster performance. The previous showdown between these two teams, where the Lions triumphed 37-23, exhibited BC’s domination in the total yards category with a staggering difference of 472-271. They averaged 7.2 yards per play while suffocating Montreal’s offense.
Key to BC’s earlier success was running back William Stanback, who exploited Montreal’s defensive vulnerabilities by rushing for 128 yards and a touchdown during their last encounter. Given the Alouettes’ struggles against the run—ranked second-worst in rushing yards allowed—it’s clear that BC has the potential to exploit this weakness further.
With the Lions playing at home, where they’ve secured five wins against three losses this season, they will be keen to bounce back after a disappointing Week 19 defeat. This setup could very well lead to a surprising upset, particularly if their offensive line can keep the momentum going.
Week 20 Player to Watch: Greg Bell or James Butler, Hamilton Tiger-Cats
As we prepare for Week 20, keep an eye on Greg Bell or James Butler of the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, both of whom are set to face off against the Calgary Stampeders. Bell has returned from injury, and whoever takes the lead back role will benefit from a favorable matchup against Calgary’s beleaguered run defense—ranked dead last in the league.
Back in Week 1, Butler wreaked havoc on the Stampeders’ defensive front, rushing for an impressive 119 yards on just 13 carries. With the Stampeders surrendering an average of 122.3 rushing yards per game at 6.4 yards per carry, this matchup bodes well for whoever has the lead role. With nothing to lose, expect heavy workloads for the running backs, especially given Hamilton’s current playoff exit status.
Conclusion
With the CFL regular season winding down, Week 20 promises several thrilling encounters. The Ottawa Redblacks and the BC Lions have compelling narratives that make them interesting contenders for upsets. Simultaneously, keep an eye on the potential breakout performance from the Hamilton running backs facing a porous Calgary defense. As always, the CFL is unpredictable, and that’s what makes it exhilarating for fans and bettors alike!
Happy wagering, and may the odds be ever in your favor!
