ALCS/NLCS Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Thursday, October 17

The MLB postseason is in full swing, and with the stakes raised higher than ever, there’s no better time to delve into the strategic world of betting. With our year-to-date record sitting at 178-176, we’re here to provide you with insights and picks to help navigate the intense playoff landscape. In this article, we will provide expert picks for Thursday’s ALCS and NLCS matchups, while also offering valuable betting strategies to enhance your experience.

MLB Postseason Betting Tips

Pitching Impact

In the postseason, we often see a lower run-scoring environment, making it essential to focus on under run totals, pitcher hits allowed, and over strikeouts. This is not the time to lay -1.5 runs unless the situation is overwhelmingly in your favor. Taking a more measured approach and targeting specific matchups will yield better results.

Bullpen Usage

Bullpen performance takes on heightened importance during the playoffs compared to the regular season where starting pitching accounts for about 55% of a game. In the postseason, teams have built-in days off, allowing managers to utilize their bullpens more strategically. Check the recent usage of each team’s bullpen before finalizing your bets.

Hitter Props

When considering hitter props, tread carefully. Teams throw their best pitchers during this time, which can stymie offensive production. Focus on home run, runs, and RBI props for the top hitters on competitive teams, as these are the players most likely to shine in high-pressure situations.

MLB Unit Betting Guide

Understanding where to place your bets and how much to stake is critical. Here’s a basic guideline for betting unit values:

• 1.5 – 2.0 units: Best Bets – typically full game totals or moneyline/run line plays.
• 1 unit: Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, system plays.
• 0.75 unit: Medium plays on ML/RL/Totals or pitcher props (strikeouts, outs).
• 0.50 unit: Pitcher props on earned runs, hitter props (total bases, home runs), team totals, F5 run line/totals.
• 0.25 unit: Parlays, home run props, alternate props.

Game Previews and Picks

New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians are in a do-or-die situation, facing a daunting 2-0 deficit in the series. The recent historical matchup between these two teams heavily favors the Yankees, with a total of 25 runs to just 6 over the last four games in New York. However, the Guardians have been a different team at home all season.

Pitching Matchup:

• Clarke Schmidt (NYY) has shown consistency with a 3.41 ERA over his last seven starts.
• Matthew Boyd (CLE) has been stellar, boasting a 2.12 ERA during the same period.

Despite the Yankees’ batting prowess on the road, the Guardians have proven they can produce offensively at home. If we consider the average projected runs for this game is nine, it suggests light pressure on both offenses.

Pick:

• Yankees/Guardians Over 7.0 Runs for 1 Unit (-122 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Jose Ramirez 2+ Total Bases for 1 Unit (+135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets

The Dodgers have dominated this series with an overwhelming collective score of 17-0 in their two victories. But don’t count out the Mets, who have been the most formidable team since June 1st, including a robust 18-7 home record over the last month.

Pitching Matchup:

• Jose Quintana (NYM) has been remarkable, with a 0.66 ERA in his last seven starts.
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) has struggled and hasn’t gone past five innings recently, which raises eyebrows regarding his effectiveness against the potent Mets lineup.

Given the Mets perform well at home and Quintana’s standout form, it’s reasonable to lean toward a Mets victory to even the series.

Pick:

• Mets ML for 1 Unit (+120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Mets Team Total Over 3.5 Runs for 1 Unit (+120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

To sum up our expert picks for today’s ALCS/NLCS action:

• Yankees/Guardians Over 7.0 Runs for 1 Unit (-122 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Jose Ramirez 2+ Total Bases for 1 Unit (+135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Mets ML for 1 Unit (+120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Mets Team Total Over 3.5 Runs for 1 Unit (+120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Don’t miss out on the latest updates and expert insights as you make your wagers. Check our MLB odds page for the most current information and guidance for all your betting needs.

With careful consideration of pitching matchups, bullpen usage, and insightful betting strategies, you’ll find yourself in a strong position to make the most of the postseason excitement. Best of luck!