Topline
As election night unfolds, former President Donald Trump is showing a remarkable surge in confidence among bettors across various betting platforms. By early Wednesday morning, Trump’s implied likelihood of winning the election has dramatically risen, despite many swing states still tallying their votes. This development comes as a surprise to analysts and pundits alike, who have closely monitored the changing dynamics of this competitive election. For comprehensive live updates on election results, visit Forbes.
People cast their in-person early ballot for the 2024 general election at the Northwest Activities Center on October 29, 2024, in Detroit, Michigan.
AFP via Getty Images
Key Facts
The betting landscape reveals that platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are assigning overwhelmingly favorable odds to Trump.
-
Polymarket: The blockchain-based betting site indicates Trump has an implied 99.1% chance of victory, contrasting with Kamala Harris’s 0.7%, as of 1:30 a.m. EST.
-
Kalshi: This New York-based prediction platform aligns closely with Polymarket, giving Trump a 99% to 1% edge, a notable turnaround from Harris’ earlier lead.
-
PredictIt: Once favoring Harris, this site now shows Trump at 98% to Harris’s 2% at the same time frame.
-
Robinhood and Interactive Brokers: The retail trading platforms provide Trump with around a 98% chance of winning, reflecting similar trends noted in other betting markets.
- Betfair and Smarkets: Although based in London and not available to American users, these sites favor Trump at 97% and 97% to 3% and 2%, respectively.
Interestingly, the odds have shifted significantly since 6 p.m. EST on election day when Trump and Harris were roughly 60% and 40%, respectively, in terms of betting likelihood.
Big Number
As of 1:30 a.m. EST, the aggregated betting odds for a Trump victory stand at 98.3%, according to the Election Betting Odds tool, which consolidates data from multiple platforms.
What Do Other Indicators Say?
In addition to the betting odds, Trump had secured 247 Electoral College votes compared to Harris’s 214 according to the Associated Press, although crucial battleground states remain uncalled as the counts continue. The New York Times forecasts grant Trump a 95% chance of winning, noting limited calls from battleground states, with North Carolina and Georgia leaning toward Trump.
Contra
Despite these optimistic betting figures for Trump, earlier polling suggested a much tighter race. Platforms like FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s models had favored Harris marginally, indicating a 50% to 49% prediction. The stark contrast between betting odds and polling forecasts has sparked discussions among analysts, especially regarding the demographic skew of bettors and the potential implications for accuracy.
What Do Betting Odds Show For House and Senate Control?
As of the same hour following the election, reports indicate that Republicans have secured control of the Senate. However, the control of the House remains uncertain, still too close to call. Prediction models suggest that Republicans hold a 74% likelihood of maintaining their grip on the House.
How Does Election Betting Work?
Election betting operates on a straightforward principle: Bettors can purchase contracts tied to each candidate’s likelihood of winning. If a bettor selects the winning candidate, their contract pays out $1; if not, they lose their investment. Currently, a contract for Trump might be priced around $0.57, while one for Harris could be about $0.44. Platforms such as Robinhood and PredictIt impose limits on how much users can wager, ensuring a managed environment for bets.
When Do Election Bets Settle?
The resolution of bets varies by platform:
- Polymarket pays out when the election is called by major news outlets like AP or NBC.
- Robinhood will process payouts on January 7, the day following Congress’s certification.
- Kalshi aligns payouts with inauguration day.
- PredictIt announces payouts based on the absence of ambiguity in the election’s outcome.
In an evolving political landscape, the growing confidence in Trump’s election bids exemplifies the complex interaction between public sentiment, betting markets, and electoral forecasts. As the votes continue to be counted and the final results become clearer, it will be essential to monitor how these dynamics shift in real-time. Whether the odds will hold or change in light of additional counts remains a matter of keen interest and speculation.
